What AI Futures Project does
AI Futures Project is a US-based 501(c)(3) nonprofit research group focused on scenario forecasting for advanced AI and (relatedly) strategic preparedness. Its core work centers on probabilistic timelines and “takeoff”-style modeling of AI capability progress, and on translating those forecasts into concrete scenario narratives and policy-relevant planning documents.
The organization is best known for producing scenario forecasts and associated public-facing materials: AI 2027 (a detailed, branching scenario) and AI 2040: Plan A (a prescriptive scenario/recommendation oriented around delaying superintelligence to 2040 through decisive government action). In addition, it maintains an interactive quantitative “AI Futures Model” that updates its timelines/takeoff expectations over time and supports scenario exploration.
Strategically, AI Futures Project occupies an “epistemic infrastructure” niche in the AI safety / governance ecosystem: instead of only arguing for safety principles, it attempts to provide explicit model-based expectations and stress-test how institutions might respond under different plausible trajectories (including through tabletop exercises). Its current position is shaped by the release of AI 2040: Plan A (July 2026) and a steady cadence of “timelines update” posts and model improvements leading up to and following that release.